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Just 48 hours remaining.

The English side's first Test in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

With the help of CricViz, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to make runs, isn't it?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are even planning to turn up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been harder in which to score runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing bowling in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other members of the backup squad have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home match without both key bowlers, and lost, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have won by a combined 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – England should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Remember when England struggled to identify an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a reason in Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who memorably hit the first ball of the previous Ashes for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australian conditions.

His batting average increases when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, most likely back at three.

In seven Tests in the current year, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in this country, though Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

Perth stages an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the visitors approach with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the location for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now not used to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

The home side have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India last year.

Each match at the new venue has been won by the team setting a target.

The English often complicate floodlit Tests, when statistics indicate the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|